---------------------------------------------------------------------------- © 1991-2000 Copyright Martien F. van Steenbergen. Sun Microsystems Nederland B.V. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subject: A thrilling effort... (The Network Is The Economy) "If you don't know where you're going, you might end up somewhere else." Yogi Bear Alvin Toffler - networks will be more important than countries - OSs are changing to become ecosystems - we're writing a new "OS" for creating wealth --> social, political and cultural changes - not plug & play, but play & plug - 3rd revolution: - highly technological (information & knowledge) - not industrial, but anti-industrial - from muscle to mind - it changes *everything* - it becomes *knowledge* driven - punctuated equilibrium - things are getting smarter (cars, values, religion, politics, everything) - knowledge (smartness) requires less land, labour, capital and time (the values from the past revolutions) - you cannot measure knowledge, and economist hate this (e.g. a brand's value is intangible - 1st wave capital: land (soil, tangible) - 2nd wave capital: shares of stock (in GM or steel, say); a tangible piece of paper - 1st & 2nd wave are zero sum (and scarce) resources: you can use a hectare of land or a product assembly line only once - 3rd wave capital: knowledge (inside heads of employees) -> supersymbolic; intangible! and you can *share* knowledge, which creates more knowledge - 1st paper money in the US to pay soldiers was not measured in size or weight, etc. but one must be able to *read* its value - e-money: multiple currencies, *not* one single currency (e.g. euro is too little, too late?!); 3rd wave: forms of money (air miles, frequent flyer points, bonus points, etc.) - coming soon: pre-programmed money that allow you to buy only specific things (e.g. no Heineken for your kids) - money is becoming informationized as information is becoming monetized - mass customization only possible because we make production lines smart, we pump in knowledge, this drives down costs of customized production - e.g. jeans don't have a size attached to it, but *your name*; not one size fits all, but one size misfits all - financial services (e.g. insurance) is another example - customization of prizes, via electronic auctions: 12 manufactures give price, you select vendor based on your valuation of product/service - going from "mass" (homogeneous) family to heterogeneous demassizified families; same is happening with mass media - 2 kinds of IT: IT to optimize burocracy; IT to get rid of burocracy - fundamental impact on distribution of power! - information age power over industrial age power over agricultural age power - globalization - the nature of change has changed - loosely coupled distributed networks are key - you are out of control - if things do not look out of control, you're not going fast enough - focus on discontinuous changes: technical, lifestyles, workstyles, demogrpahic, political, deregulation, mix of competitiors and collaborators - we're heading towards chaos; the world is changing faster than its underlying markets [AT] - spend less time on the future of the economy, spend time on the economy of the future [AT] - electronic commerce will come more slowly, but have more impact than most people believe Guy Kawasaki's Rules for Revolutionaries - think different and change the rules (Fedex, Amazon) - don't worry, be crappy (release early) - build a good team with an egomaniac leader and a devoted innovative core of employees - churn, baby churn (release often) - break down barriers (and listen to user's feedback) - make evangelists, not sales (get people excited about the product; find people that can turn boring facts into emotion - avoid death magnets (don't try to become M$); too many monkeys trying to become a gorilla; to become a gorilla, be a smart monkey, not emulate one - eat like a bird, and s**t like an elephant (take in lots of information, and also spread it out; im- & export knowledge) - think digital, but act analog - never ask someone to do something you wouldn't do yourself - don't let the bozos grind you down Kevin Kelly - see also New Rules for the New Economy http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/5.09/newrules.html - see also Out of Control http://www.well.com/user/kk/OutOfControl/ - I'm not a nerd, I dislike computers very much - whoever has the smartest customer wins - make the customers part of your company: very high switching costs if your customer has invested in your products or services; just like a marriage - make customers complete your product; it's the only way to best customize your product - make your customer train you! - articulate those relationships - there must be an immediate pay-off to write a trip report - don't ask yourself if you're doing your job right, ask yourself if you're doing the right job; the problem with being able to measure productivity and efficiency is that it only gives you an idea of how well we perform the wrong jobs; if you can measure efficiency or productivity of a job, you can probably eliminate (or automate) that job; if you focus on solving problems, you invest in your weaknesses; every new opportunity taken creates two or three new opportunities - don't solve problems, seek opportunities; if you're looking for chances, bet on the network - recipe for managing complexity (or getting smart from dumb things): http://www.well.com/user/kk/OutOfControl/ch3-c.html 1) Do simple things first. 2) Learn to do them flawlessly. 3) Add new layers of activity over the results of the simple tasks. 4) Don't change the simple things. 5) Make the new layer work as flawlessly as the simple. 6) Repeat, ad infinitum. - How to make something from nothing http://www.well.com/user/kk/OutOfControl/ch24-a.html - most complex ecosystem is a human? heart, kidneys, lungs, nerve system, etc? is our globe also an ecosystem (of ecosystems)? is the galaxy also an ecosystem (of ecosystems)? what's beyond that? - flash crowds - not a stable crowd; Deep Blue effect 5M people - things swirl through, swarms to a website - communities precede commerce; it takes a village to make a mall - people want to have identities; organisations with a cult; through the membrana, need to get in -> long life & prosperity - trust: purple: no exchange; blue: 1:1 exchange; green: 3rd party exchange; will move on to real life; spill over - at ATM: are you a highly valued customer of the bank, or are you an underpaid bank employee? - attention is scarce; interface is wealth; not products but relationships - anything you cannot copy is information - you cannot copy experiences ==> experiences will become extremely valuable - evolution is an error management system - better to have a lot of little mistakes, rather than two big ones - tolerate mistakes, debrief, post-mortem - institutionalize mistakes - marketspace vs. marketplace - projects: 53% challenged, 31% cancelled, 16% succeeds - Dell model: pay before it's manufactured Eduard de Jong - vintage software and pedigree hardware breed trusted components During EPN on Security meeting: - if it's normal (e.g. everyone does it, it's normal): free it up; if it's exceptional, make a law - if it's normal, but there is a law that makes it illegal: screw the illegal issues, change the law - 1:1 marketing limits: if you get into someone's intimiteits circle - 1:1 marketing: must provide better service and value; must not violate privacy - need to know vs. nice to know Ian Angell - one lamb a day (for the lion) - add value or perish - there is no room for sentimentality - government is legitimate organized crime - all taxation is theft - human intellect is the stuff of work on tomorrow's world - dollar bills vs. Bill's dollars - hot-spots - a good place for knowledge workers to feel happy - the soon-to-have-nots Jaap van Ginneken - verkokering in The Netherlands - universities are the most verkokerd institutions - nieuwe ideeën komen juist uit het leggen van dwarsverbeanden over verzuiling heen: vereer de dwarsliggers! - De vlinder van Lorentz flappert in Brazilië met haar vleugels en veroorzaakt zodoende een orkaan in Texas - positive feedback loops and turbulence - Beok: The Fortune Tellers - Book: Megamistakes - Book: In search of excellence - The controllosaurus (will be extinct soon) - patterns vs. chaos; patterns can appear spontaneously out of chaos, so there must be self-organizing rules governing this - interactivity, self-organisation, distrubuted intelligence, creativity, schepping Fedex - is in the information business; specializes in orchestrating the flow of goods *and* information between customers and retailers and suppliers - rooted in the world of information technology and distributed networks - have three costly networks: air, ground and infotech ($2-3B/yr) - market will grow from $12B in 1997 to %150B in 2008 - fedex thrives on a network of loosely coupled yet sophisticated melange of laser scanners, bar codes, software and electronic connections; a bedrock of mobile computers, package tracking systems and sophisticated databases - have installed over 100,000 PowerShip computer terminals at customers sites connected to the Cosmos network - any internet-connected computer is a seamless extension of the Cosmos network - have installed over 650,000 copies of proprietary software at customer sites - shipped 2.7M packets in 1996 to 211 countries relying on a backbone of 37,000 vans and trucks and 562 planes (same size as Delta or United), 45 million transactions, 99% on-time delivery, daily - daily operations are like Strategic Air Command - knows which customer creates how much profit - and which customer actually end up costing money - manufacturing shifting to just-in-time inventory practices; expensive parts must be shipped all over the world; cuts massive costs on inventory; virtual warehousing - whole process is transparent to customer - customer places order at web site, gets transferred to vendor, Fedex ships; a lot of the time Fedex doesn't even touch the acutal product; all we do is sit back and collect the money - Fedex wants to be ready when electronic commerce really takes of customers - objective: to make Fedex the official airline of the internet Desert Storm war was won by Information Superiority - how to deploy and win the battlefield in 2005/2010 - information superiority - that's not about more planes, more troops, more boats, more whatever, it's about deploying information out as far as you can - getting the network on every ship, tank, plane, troop; requires lees people, less capital, but more network Douglas Engelbart - see also The Bootstrap Organization http://www.bootstrap.org/ - constantly getting better in getting better - Bootstrapping Organizations into the 21st Century - A Strategic Framework http://www.bootstrap.org/augment-132803.htm Scott McNealy - DEC Alpha: gaining speed but losing altitude - have lunch or be lunch Brooks - Myhtical Man Month - organization has as goal to obliviate communication BlueJ - The Interactive Java Environment - http://www.sd.monash.edu.au/bluej/ - http://www.jess99.com/sun-by-sun/jess99/day2/iseduc~1/rosenber.pdf JLE - Java Learning Environment - http://www.jle.org - http://www.jess99.com/sun-by-sun/jess99/day2/iseduc~1/mardones.pdf Jaarcongres Onderzoek in Nieuwe Medai 1999 Mw. Prof. Dr. Enid Mante-Meijer - KPN Research Scenarios Focus: - hoe gedragen ze zich nu? - hoe gaat *straks* de samenleving eruit zien? - context, leefstijl & behoefte bepalen gebruik Scenario != Voorspelling (Delphi, kristallen bol, koffiedik) Redenatie vanuit het verleden. Doel is leren omgaan met onzekerheden. Wat is doel & doelgroep (b.v. strategisch management & - marketeers) Géén technologie erin! 1st: trendanalyse: trends & tegentrends V: raster van voorschriften G: sterkte van groepsgrenzen V G gedrag zwak zwak individualistisch (4) zwak sterk egalitair (3) sterk zwak fatalistisch (2) sterk sterk hiërarchish (1) Typering mens 1. Protoburger: Geregelde Gerrit (taken care of, control) 2. Tragische Thea of Harde Hannie 3. Gestande Steven (netwerk, conversatie, oprecht, vertrouwen) 4. Virtuele Victoria (1:1, maatwerk) Doorslaan: 1 <-> 4 en 2 <-> 3 Scenarios voor: - bedenken nieuwe produkten en diensten - toetsen van ontworpen produkten en diensten - doortrekken van trends t.b.v. businessplanne - toetsen van businessideeën voor de toekomst - invoering kritieke events - organisatoe toetsen aan: - eisen klanten - klantbenadering - interne processen - management van mensen De 5 C's - Controle - Coordinatie - Communicatie - Coordinatie - Creativiteit Brands - a brand's value is intangible - a brand is extremely important, creates an identity that stands for some values in life (e.g. Nike, Coca Cola, etc.) - a brand does not limit the product or services categories; e.g. Swatch not only does watches, they also do cars (smart)! - a brand must be: - easy to pronounce - easy to write down - professional - not invite puns - catchy - short (max 3 syllabi) - recognicable - globally applicable - associate with the company - elegant - print/fax good - robust - reliable - non-offensive in each country - pricing - pay per use (see Batavia) - pay per transaction (see Batavia); transaction-based pricing model - price per transaction or service: use auction strategis (see Agorics); bazaar-like - micro- or nanopayments - all software and tools (maybe even hardware) is free; pay per use only - product features - listen to your customers (more users find more bugs) - treat your users as if they're your most valuable resource; they will respond by becoming your most valuabel resource; involve them - recognize good ideas from your users and honour them - the most striking innovative solutions come from realizing that your concept of the problem was wrong - perfection in design is achieved not when there is nothing more to add, but rather when there is nothing more to take away - any tool should be useful in the expected way, but a truly great tool lends itself to uses you never expected - create products that excites your customers and makes them eager to buy them - Java tatooed on your arm: when was the last time you felt this strong about something (Harley Davidson bike owners) - no more batch processing; everything will be in real time; all transactions; no need to wait for weekly or monthly updates; what you see is what you have - make it adapt to you, rather that the other way around (fits like a glove) - very high ggg-factor: gewin, genot, gemak - see also: Tonic's rules to live by - product life cycle - see Catherdral and Bazaar: release early and often - there is none; it will continuosly evolve - plan to throw one away; you will anyhow - treat our users as co-developers - applications delivered as services by ISPs - applications and data become a utility service delivered by telco's and banks - software engineering - smart data structures and dumb code works better than the other way around (show me your code and conceal your data structures, and I shall continue to be mystified. show me your data structures, and I won't usually need your code; it'll be obvious [Brooks] The Network Economy "OS": - papers over "stone age" systems like Solaris, NT, Oracle, SAP - specialized, unpersonalized devices and services become "yours" on touch or proximity (king Midas, but not starving) - anticipates "you" (i.e. the data that represents you on the net) travels ahead and along with you; if you plan a trip abroad, KLM knows you preferences w.r.t. seating, schedules and airports, Hertz knows when you will arrive and what kind of car you prefer, and Hyatt will anticipate your arrival and set up the appropriate room and set the doorlock to accept your smartcard; the system (== net) as a whole will make sure your data is available on the closest server on the airport, in the rental car, in your hotel room; it migrates to those nearby places ahead of you; it knows (has learned) about the time it takes to travel your data to those locations, and so it knows when to start migrating it over. Earcons (audio synthesis (c.f. Bill Gaver (Gaver@EuroPARC.Xerox.COM); see INTERCHI '93) Semantic multilevel and multiuser undo (; see GINA project at INTERCHI '93 proceedings, Spenke@zeus.gmd.de) WYSIWYH--What You See Is What You Have: there is no need to save your work. It's always persistent, just like when you're sawing a tree. However, the powerful undo features always allow you to return to any point in the process and rethink your actions. 3-D object selection paradigm (see Xerox's 3-D "tree") "Selfish" (like Self uses animation and motion blur in its interface desing) Excellent visual and auditory feedback. Silk and smooth human interface. Dynamic adaptation to available resources Why smartcards are not so smart after all - smartcards are trusted devices: you trust that only the appropriate authoroties can access and maybe change certain features and data on the card, and only those features that they're authorized to access; e.g. the government should not be able to look into your wallet data which is stored on the same smartcard - you can use smartcards for the following: - as a key or pass to access: - as a license: - buildings, rooms - to drive a car - computers, portals - to show that you're a student - your email - to show that you're over 65 - private information - to show your citizenship - corporate information - as a purse or wallet: - as your identity: - to pay for train or tram travel - to hold your preferences - to pay for the phone - to have the rental match you - to pay for parking - to purchase gifts - to pay for the cinema - to pay the cab driver - how do you let your kid pay for an ice cream on the beach? do you give your kid your smartcard? - different trust levels: you may spend max $100, your kid $25, anyone else $0 - smartcard participants (AH, Edah, KLM, ING, Postbank, etc.) are talking about "their" cards, while in effect it is *your* card. *your* identity is on that card; *your* very, extremely personal data is on that card - so everyone should have their own personal card, *you* determine what's on it - just one (maybe two or three) cards should be more than enough (why walk around with 20 or so cards? - how can you pay someone back, or loan some money from someone else? - i.e. how can you transfer e-money from on smartcard to another? - how can my employer delegate to me the authority to pay certain purchases on behalf of the company? - smartcards should also support anonymous transactions - smartcards should support that the merchant's data is available to you, but your data (identity, etc.) is not available to the merchant if you desire so - smartcards should support that you can take the profile you've built up over the last time at Albert Heijn is easily usable at Edah as well; - smarcards issuers should tell you up front what they will and will not do with your data, and under which conditions - smartcard owner (you) must have full authority over smartcard data and privacy policies - all cars are built with extensive safety requirements, but it's safety depends on how you drive them; you can turn a car into a deadly projectile quite easily Finally, biometric authentication in combination with the network being available everywhere will make smartcards completely obsolete. After all, when you pay with your giromaat pas or credit card, in many cases your credit will be checked before the transaction can be made. The pay terminal already makes a connection with the bank to perform a credit check. So, why do I need to carry this card around with all my personal data, e-money, etc. I can only lose it, and if I don't lose it, it can be stolen. And my e-money does not get any interest when stored on a smartcard. So, if we have unobtrusive biometric authentication devices that are always networkd, I don't need any smartcards whatsoever. The network knows my credit limits, or my debets, knows my health history and insurance conditions, knows that I've reserved and paid for those two cinema tickets, knows that it has to reserve a parking slot in the parking garage and I will come in around eight. And it will grant me access to that same highly secured parking garage when I return at eleven o'clock and keep the burglars out. So, tell me, why do I need to invest in multi-functional JavaCards today, only to expierience a wasted investments a few years from now? Power Base Selling, Valu Based Selling and Marketing - it's not the destination that worries us, it's the journey that gets us there - if you're leading the pack, look back once in a while to see if they're still there Sesame Street - do it simple en samen Tonic's "Rules to live by" ========================== Be kind ------- Put things where they belong. Few are won over by misplaced, misalinged, misdesigned anything. Form, really, is a function. Be kind to the user. Observe a lot. Test everything--because sometimes "common sense" is neither. It's hard to make every product so understandable that people know how to use it before they pick it up. But it's worth shooting for. [Apple Powerbook (1991)] Make things simple, but beautiful. ---------------------------------- Elegant and timeless beat fancy, gimmicky, or slick. Any day. [Digidesign RI recording controller (1993)] Make people lust for it. ------------------------ Give it a competitive advantage. Make it worth looking at. Worth holding. Worth using. Worth paying good money for. If the guy next to you on the train had one, would you be more than a little curious? Envious? Good. [Apple Newton prototype (1992) and Powerbook Duo (1992)] Make it makeable. ----------------- It doesn't matter how beautiful the thing is if you can't manufacture it. Befriend the engineering team. Collaborate with the factory. Instead of designing yourself into a corner, ask for their opinions. So you can produce it--by the thousands. By the millions. Affordably. [Apple Personal Laserwriter (1990) and Macintosh IIci (1990)] Invent the future. ------------------ If you don't like your destiny, invent a new one. Have some fun. Experiment. Invent a new product category. (Or a whole new industry.) Invent a new design language. Reset the corporate compass. "It can't be done," the naysayers will declare. Don' listen. [AT&T Personal Communicator concept (1992), Apple Guide concept (1991) and Knowledge Navigator concept (1987)] Tonic's "Rules to live by" are quoted without permission from a little booklet I got at the SIGGRAPH '93. © 1993 Tonic Industrial Design, Palo Alto, California, (415) 325-1326, (415) 326-4678, fax. All rights reserved. The Network Is The Economy. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- © 1991-2000 Copyright Martien F. van Steenbergen. Sun Microsystems Nederland B.V. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------